Latest Polling Data in the 2024 Biden vs. Trump Election

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the race between incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump remains highly competitive. Polling data provides crucial insights into voter sentiment, key battleground states, and potential outcomes. Here’s an analysis of the most recent polling trends as of mid-2024.

National Polling Averages

According to the latest aggregated polling data from RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, and Politico, the race remains tight:

• Joe Biden (D): 46%

• Donald Trump (R): 45%

• Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I): 6%

• Other/Undecided: 3%

Biden holds a slight edge nationally, but within the margin of error, indicating a statistical tie. Third-party candidates, particularly Robert F. Kennedy Jr., could play a spoiler role by drawing votes from both major candidates.

Key Battleground States

The election will likely be decided in swing states. Recent polls show:

1. Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes)

• Biden: 47%

• Trump: 46%

• Kennedy: 4%

Pennsylvania remains a toss-up, with Biden slightly ahead due to strong support in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.

2. Michigan (15 Electoral Votes)

• Biden: 46%

• Trump: 45%

• Kennedy: 5%

Michigan is another tight race, with Biden relying on Detroit and suburban voters, while Trump dominates rural areas.

3. Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes)

• Biden: 45%

• Trump: 44%

• Kennedy: 6%

Wisconsin is a true toss-up, with Milwaukee and Madison favoring Biden, while Trump leads in smaller towns.

4. Arizona (11 Electoral Votes)

• Trump: 47%

• Biden: 45%

• Kennedy: 5%

Trump has a narrow lead in Arizona, boosted by strong conservative turnout in Maricopa County.

5. Georgia (16 Electoral Votes)

• Trump: 48%

• Biden: 44%

• Kennedy: 5%

Georgia leans slightly toward Trump, with Atlanta’s suburbs being a major battleground.

6. Nevada (6 Electoral Votes)

• Trump: 46%

• Biden: 45%

• Kennedy: 6%

Nevada is another close race, with Las Vegas and Reno determining the outcome.

Demographic Breakdown

Age Groups

• Under 35: Biden leads by 12 points (52% Biden, 40% Trump).

• 35-64: Trump leads by 4 points (48% Trump, 44% Biden).

• 65+: Trump leads by 6 points (50% Trump, 44% Biden).

Young voters favor Biden, but Trump dominates older demographics.

Race & Ethnicity

• White voters: Trump +7 (51% Trump, 44% Biden).

• Black voters: Biden +65 (80% Biden, 15% Trump).

• Hispanic voters: Biden +12 (54% Biden, 42% Trump).

• Asian voters: Biden +20 (58% Biden, 38% Trump).

Biden maintains strong minority support, but Trump has gained ground with Hispanic voters compared to 2020.

Gender Gap

• Men: Trump +6 (50% Trump, 44% Biden).

• Women: Biden +5 (49% Biden, 44% Trump).

The gender divide persists, with Biden performing better among women and Trump leading among men.

Key Issues Driving Voter Preferences

1. Economy (Inflation, Jobs): 32% of voters rank this as their top issue. Trump leads on economic confidence (52% trust Trump vs. 42% Biden).

2. Immigration & Border Security: 25% prioritize this—Trump holds a 15-point lead.

3. Healthcare & Abortion: 18% cite this as critical—Biden leads by 10 points due to abortion rights concerns.

4. Foreign Policy (Ukraine, Israel, China): 15% consider this decisive—Biden has a slight edge.

Potential Wildcards

1. Third-Party Candidates: RFK Jr. could siphon votes from both candidates, particularly among anti-establishment voters.

2. Legal Troubles for Trump: Convictions or court rulings could shift undecided voters.

3. Biden’s Age & Health: Persistent concerns about Biden’s fitness could depress Democratic turnout.

4. Voter Turnout: Youth and minority turnout will be crucial for Biden; rural and working-class turnout will help Trump.

The 2024 election remains a toss-up, with Biden holding a slight edge in national polls but Trump competitive in key swing states. The outcome will hinge on battleground states, third-party influence, and voter enthusiasm. As the campaign intensifies, debates, economic trends, and unforeseen events could dramatically shift the race.

For now, expect a razor-thin margin—similar to 2020—with every vote counting in what may be one of the closest elections in U.S. history.